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Key Points: Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including for the Australian share market. While the yield curve is flashing warning signs and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses that normally precede US recessions...
Key Points: 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were to: turn down the noise...
Key Points: The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against a backdrop of low inflation...
Key Points: Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the...
Key Points: The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to cut more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A has already had a large...
Key Points: My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right is not as easy as...
Key Points: The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking...
Key Points: The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher than we have been expecting. ...
Key Points: The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global growth are now higher (given the...
Key Points: Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the...
