17 Jan 2023 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
Key Points:
- 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds.
- 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for shares is a high risk. But easing inflation, central banks getting off the brakes (with the RBA at or close to the peak on rates), economic growth likely stronger than feared & improved valuations should make for better returns.
- Australian residential property prices likely have more downside, ahead of a September quarter low.
- The main things to keep an eye on are: inflation; central banks and interest rates; US politics & its “debt ceiling”; China tensions; and Australian residential property prices.
