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Key Points: The first half of this year saw good share market returns despite the oil supply shock on the back of the US/Iran War. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the short term. Nine...
Key Points: Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments over the last five years have led to a slump in Australians’ living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from...
Key Points: While we saw a long list of worries over the last year, 2025-26 saw another financial year of strong returns. Risks around Iran and oil, various other geopolitical issues, sticky inflation and possible further rate hikes and AI related bubble worries could drive...
Key Points: Angst about economic conditions has been running high in recent times. This is evident in chronically low consumer confidence readings and a downtrend in measures of happiness. It’s also arguably evident in the rise of populist parties globally and more recently in Australia. ...
Key Points: Despite lots of threats over the last 18 months share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient. This likely reflects a combination of: President Trump’s desire for shares to rise; economic activity data right here right now has been okay; earnings growth has...
Key Points: After three consecutive rate hikes the RBA left rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, the RBA retained a tightening bias noting that inflation Is “still too high” and is likely to remain so for some time and that it...
Key Points: National average home prices were flat in May according to Cotality, the weakest since January last year. Prices fell further in Sydney and Melbourne, and the boom time cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are seeing growth slow. The housing shortage and expanded...
Key Points: The combination of the natural human tendency to focus on bad news, expectations rising beyond the ability of the economy to deliver, the increased availability of information & the rise of social media are likely magnifying perceptions around worries and making it easier...
Key Points: The oil supply shock remains a significant threat to economic growth and shares – particularly with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and oil reserves running down. It’s contributing to rising bond yields and putting pressure on share market valuations. The tax changes...
Key Points: The key changes are a wind back in negative gearing, the taxation of real capital gains, numerous moves to reduce regulation, and modest net budget cuts over five years. The projected deficits are now slightly lower over the budget period by around $45bn,...
