01 Dec Australian home prices up solidly – expect some slowing in 2026
Key Points
- Cotality data shows national average home prices rose strongly again in November, but with the pace of growth slowing slightly to 1%mom.
- Near record low vacancy rates is contributing to a pickup in annual rental growth to 5%yoy.
- The lagged impact of rate cuts, the expansion of the 5% low deposit scheme and the startup of the Help to Buy scheme along with the ongoing housing shortage are expected to drive further gains in home prices next year.
- However, the gains are likely to slow in 2026 as a result of poor affordability, the less favourable outlook for interest rates with the risk of a rate hike and APRA moving to ramp up macro prudential controls and likely to do more.
- After around 8.5% growth this year we now expect property price growth to slow to around 5-7% in 2026.
