10 Dec 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026 – still at the bliss point?
Key Points
- The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed.
- 2026 is likely to see volatility around US politics, geopolitics & central bank rates at the lows, but returns should be ok.
- Expect the RBA cash rate to hold at 3.6%, the ASX 200 to rise to 8900 & balanced super funds to return around 6.8%.
- Australian home price gains are likely to slow to 5-7% with poor affordability and a less favourable rate outlook.
- Key things to keep an eye on are interest rates, the US midterms, AI enthusiasm, China, & Australian consumers.
