01 Jun Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead
Key Points:
- Australia capital city home prices fell -0.5% in May.
- Significant policy support & the earlier reopening of the economy have made our worst-case scenario for a 20% decline in average Australian house prices unlikely.
- However, our base case is for home prices to fall around 5-10%, as “true” unemployment will remain high, government support measures and the bank payment holiday end in September, immigration falls and new supply is likely to be boosted via government measures.
