24 Oct Five constraints on medium term investment returns
Key Points:
- Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic.
- These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though.
- But taken together this will likely constrain medium term superannuation returns, potentially to around 5.5% pa.