11 Feb Investment outlook Q&A – Tariff man & Aust exports, the RBA, $A & gold
Key Points
- Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more.
- Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the direct economic impact will be minor eg, steel and aluminium exports to the US are just 0.03% of Aust GDP.
- The RBA is expected to start cutting interest rates next week and trade war uncertainty adds to the case to cut.
- It could take till 2032 before Australian real wages get back to 2020 levels. Decent economic reforms could speed this.