23 Jun Teflon share markets – 5 reasons they’re so resilient despite lots of worries
Key Points:
- Despite lots of threats over the last 18 months share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient.
- This likely reflects a combination of: President Trump’s desire for shares to rise; economic activity data right here right now has been okay; earnings growth has been helped by the AI spending boom; the global economy is awash in excess capital looking for a home; and policy makers have become more assertive in protecting their economies.
- However, there is a danger in getting too swept along in positive market sentiment: the Iran War could flare up again; Trump will be less constrained after the mid-term elections; there is a risk that the AI boom is morphing into a bubble; inflation is proving sticky with global central banks starting to hike rates; & share market volatility is at the low end of its normal range which can be a sign of rising risk.
- So, while the strong share run could continue for a while yet investors should resist the temptation to take on more risk.