05 May The return of geopolitical risk? what to watch over the remainder of 2021
Key Points:
- Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets.
- But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.
- After a lull following the transition to President Biden, key geopolitical issues to watch this year are: US and Australian tensions with China; Iran/Israel tensions; Russia and Ukraine; the German election; US tax hikes and a possible early Australian election.
