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Key Points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as President Trump paused the worst of his...
Key Points The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets. But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the...
Key Points So far, the Israel/Iran war is limited, and various constraints suggest it may stay that way with Iran reportedly wanting to return to talks. It’s still early days though and so the risk of an escalation threatening oil supplies remains significant. Current oil...
Key Points US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments. While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this along with...
Key Points As widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the door wide open...
Key Points Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have rebounded to within 3-4% of their record highs. The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is...
Key Points The return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies. The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and affordability, get the budget under...
Key Points Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events. The key for investors is to...
Key Points Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed will step in with lower...
Key Points Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed...
