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Key Points Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events. The key for investors is to...
Key Points Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed will step in with lower...
Key Points Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed...
Key Points Australian election campaigns tend to see uncertainty driving weak gains for shares, followed by a bounce. Labor is offering more of the same whereas the Coalition is offering smaller government albeit without much detail. A hung parliament & minority government is the biggest...
Key Points CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. Annual growth in rents slowed to 4.1%yoy,...
Key Points So far shares have been relatively resilient but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus correction likely somewhere along the way. ...
Key Points As widely expected, the RBA cut its cash rate to 4.1% from 4.35% after 13 rate hikes reflecting “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards” the 2-3% target. However, the RBA noted that it is “cautious on prospects for further policy easing”. ...
Key Points Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the...
Key Points US President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs. The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means a volatile ride...
Key Points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and shouldn’t...
