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Key Points The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to the Fed under...
Key Points While the near-term risks for the RBA cash rate are probably on the upside, the most likely scenario is that the RBA holds rates ahead of rate cuts starting later this year. The March quarter US and Australian inflation scare is likely receding,...
Key Points The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a continuing revenue windfall, but slip back into bigger deficits from 2024-25. Key measures include broader cost-of-living support & “Future Made in Australia” measures. Significant extra spending risks adding...
Key Points Seasonal patterns in shares gave rise to the saying “sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger’s Day.” However, seasonal patterns can’t always be relied on so while investors should be aware of them, betting on them solely to drive...
Key Points Despite a big rise in GDP per person, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in the US and Australia. Younger people in the US, Canada, Australia and NZ are the least happy age group. This is a major change from...
Key Points After strong gains, shares are vulnerable to a pull back or more volatile/constrained returns than seen so far this year. The key threats at present are Iran’s attack on Israel which risks escalating the war in the Middle East, threatening oil supplies, and...
Key Points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be. Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it’s very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates still matter; but it’s been chronically undersupplied for years; forecasting...
Key Points Seven key lasting impacts from the Coronavirus pandemic are: “bigger” government; tighter labour markets; reduced globalisation and increased geopolitical tensions; higher inflation; worse housing affordability; working from home; and a faster embrace of technology. On balance these make for a more fragmented and...
Key Points Bitcoin has made it to new record highs, helped recently by the advent of ETFs that invest directly into it. While blockchain technology has promise, the use case for Bitcoin is hard to determine making it impossible to value. Bitcoin could have lots...
Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing Shane Oliver first started a decade ago. To read the full article...
