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Key Points: While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts worth keeping...
Key Points: Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom fall in home...
Key Points: Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts. The key for investors is to be aware of the role of investor psychology and its...
Key Points: Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but are magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business...
Key Points: The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for...
Key Points: The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% pa. If inflation...
The telephone issues that we were experiencing over the last couple of weeks has now been resolved and look forward to taking your calls. We thank you for your ongoing patience and apologise for any inconvenience....
Key Points: The high inflation of the 1970s was bad for economies and bad for investment returns. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates is likely over removing a tailwind for investment returns. But a return to sustained 1970’s levels of inflation appears unlikely. To...
Key Points: 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which...
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