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Key Points: Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates...
Key Points: Australia continues to perform better in “controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic support policy response, its major trading partners in Asia are in better shape, the drag from the mining bust is over and it should benefit from a cyclical global recovery...
Key Points: The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could win control of the Senate via...
Key Points: The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further reduction in borrowing costs will...
Key Points: This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing...
Key Points: The continuing decline in investment yields on the back of falling interest rates and bond yields has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets fall to around 4.8% pa. At least it’s still better...
Key Points: Even in good times successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key rules I think are: make the most of compound interest; don’t...
Key Points: The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at a record $213.7bn this financial year. That’s around 11% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2. The risk is the deficit will be worse at around $230bn. Key measures include...
Key Points: The US election has significant potential to add to volatility in investment markets. A Trump victory will mean more of the same and would likely initially be more positive for US than global and Australian shares. By contrast a Biden victory may add...
Key Points: The Australian Federal budget next month will likely see a further blow out in the budget deficit due to the ongoing hit to tax revenue & more stimulus. We expect an "eye popping" 2020-21 deficit of around $230bn. Stepping up economic reforms will...
