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Key Points: The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back. But...
Key Points: Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook. This makes it all the more important to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing. These five charts focus...
Key Points: The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets. The risk of a deeper hit to economic activity has risen. Key things to watch are the daily number of new cases,...
Key Points: Share markets have fallen sharply over the last week or so on the back of coronavirus concerns. Shares may still have more downside and the uncertainty around the coronavirus crisis is very high, but we are of the view that it’s just another...
Key Points: While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond...
Key Points: Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction. But with inflation low, and as long as recession is not imminent, it makes sense that traditional valuations like PEs are higher than their long-term average. Similarly, it makes sense that property yields are lower than...
Key Points: The coronavirus outbreak is just another of a long list of worries. Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more...
Key Points: The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is...
Key Points: Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain...
Key Points: The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on economic activity has increased the...
