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Key Points: While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond...
Key Points: Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction. But with inflation low, and as long as recession is not imminent, it makes sense that traditional valuations like PEs are higher than their long-term average. Similarly, it makes sense that property yields are lower than...
Key Points: The coronavirus outbreak is just another of a long list of worries. Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more...
Key Points: The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is...
Key Points: Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain...
Key Points: The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on economic activity has increased the...
Key Points: Despite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Recession remains unlikely (it’s a bigger risk in Australia) & so too is a long deep bear market in shares. Watch US trade wars, the...
Key Points: 2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary...
Key Points: In the absence of significant fiscal stimulus soon, further RBA monetary easing both in the form of rate cuts and quantitative easing point to more downside for the Australian Dollar. However, there is good reason to believe we may be close to the...
Key Points: While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise that super and investing in...
