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Key Points: The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest...
Key Points: Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the threat from falling property prices...
Key Points: The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures beyond forward guidance which is already being used. Unconventional monetary policy measures could help the economy, but negative interest rates...
Key Points: Worries above the US trade wars and global growth are continuing to cause volatility in investment markets. While the risks have increased, we remain of the view that recession is unlikely. Share markets may still fall further on trade war fears and this...
Key Points: The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to fall further in the short...
Key Points: The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect another one or two 0.25%...
Key Points: Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including for the Australian share market. While the yield curve is flashing warning signs and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses that normally precede US recessions...
Key Points: 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were to: turn down the noise...
Key Points: The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against a backdrop of low inflation...
Key Points: Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the...
