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Key Points: The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to cut more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A has already had a large...
Key Points: My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right is not as easy as...
Key Points: The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking...
Key Points: The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher than we have been expecting. ...
Key Points: The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global growth are now higher (given the...
Key Points: Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the...
Key Points: Surprisingly low inflation in Australia has increased the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again. We continue to see the cash rate falling to 1% by year end and now see the first cut coming as soon as May. For investors, it’s...
Key Points: Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more intervention in the economy the...
Key Points: The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets. The main risk is that the revenue boost is not sustained & the budget continues to have relatively optimistic assumptions regarding wages growth. The impact on the RBA and...
Key Points: The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have realistic return...
