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Key Points: The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global growth are now higher (given the...
Key Points: Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the...
Key Points: Surprisingly low inflation in Australia has increased the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again. We continue to see the cash rate falling to 1% by year end and now see the first cut coming as soon as May. For investors, it’s...
Key Points: Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more intervention in the economy the...
Key Points: The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets. The main risk is that the revenue boost is not sustained & the budget continues to have relatively optimistic assumptions regarding wages growth. The impact on the RBA and...
Key Points: The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have realistic return...
