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Key Points The continuing rise of populism globally – as evident in recent European elections and in the US with Trump and the Republican party – is signalling an ongoing shift away from economic rationalist policies in favour of greater government involvement in economies and...
Key Points With Australian shares reaching a new record high we have revised up our slightly our expectations for the ASX 200 this year (from 7900 to 8100) reflecting prospects for lower interest rates globally and eventually in Australia boosting the growth outlook next year. ...
Key Points After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have...
Key Points 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared. More central banks moving to cut rates, including the...
Key Points My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 40 years are: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; it’s hard to get markets right; investment markets don’t...
Key Points The success of far-right political parties in EU parliamentary elections & the calling of an election in France have boosted uncertainty by risking a return to the Eurozone crises. However, centrist parties still dominate in Europe and support for the Euro is strong. ...
Key Points CoreLogic data showed national average home prices rose 0.8% in May, their strongest rise since last October. The housing market remains remarkably resilient with the housing shortage and still solid jobs market providing support, offsetting the downwards pressure on prices from high interest...
Key Points The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to the Fed under...
Key Points While the near-term risks for the RBA cash rate are probably on the upside, the most likely scenario is that the RBA holds rates ahead of rate cuts starting later this year. The March quarter US and Australian inflation scare is likely receding,...
Key Points The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a continuing revenue windfall, but slip back into bigger deficits from 2024-25. Key measures include broader cost-of-living support & “Future Made in Australia” measures. Significant extra spending risks adding...
