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Key Points: China’s economy is slowing not helped by a property collapse and longer-term structural constraints around poor demographics and threats to productivity growth. China needs to save less and spend more, and this requires significant fiscal stimulus. So far policy stimulus has been tepid,...
Key Points: The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to persist. ...
Key Points: Rapid monetary tightening points to a high risk of recession and, given lags in the way it impacts the economy, just because it hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t. However, a combination of falling inflation, a lack of excesses beyond inflation,...
Key Points: For nearly 30 years Australia had benign economic cycles so the current environment may be a bit of a shock for many. Still low unemployment and still high inflation despite slowing economic growth are not that unusual because they both normally lag big...
Key Points: Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge at times. Here are some common-sense tips that may be of use: Shop around when it comes to financial services. Don’t take on too much debt. Allow for interest rate to go up and...
Key Points: After the rough ride of 2021-22, 2022-23 turned out to be a good one for investors as shares rebounded thanks to falling inflation and hopes rates are near the top. Shares are at risk of a pull back as central banks remain hawkish...
Key Points: The budget this year is expected to return to a surplus of $4bn thanks to a continuing revenue windfall. Key measures include cost-of-living support, more spending on aged care and a move to slow NDIS growth. Implications for inflation and hence the RBA...
Key Points: Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is over. A surge in demand on the back of high immigration and constrained supply appear to be dominating the negative impact of higher interest rates. ...
Key Points: The independent Review of the RBA has recommended a significant change in the way the RBA does things in relation to the monetary policy framework, decision making, culture and governance at the RBA. The RBA made some decisions in recent times it would...
Key Points: Inflation is likely to have peaked and this means that central banks are either at or close to the top on rates. The risk of recession has increased but should be avoided in Australia, providing the RBA is at or near the top...
