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Key Points: Australian GDP growth slowed in the June quarter but to a stronger than expected +0.7%qoq. This avoids a technical recession, but the current quarter is likely to see a 4% slump due to the lockdowns. While there is lots of gloom around there...
Key Points: China is seeing a regulatory crackdown on tech companies, the property sector and inequality aimed at supporting its middle class. The shift to “bigger government” likely has further to run. Chinese economic growth is likely to be soft this half but policy easing...
Key Points: Bonds and shares often diverge – we saw this a year ago with shares rallying but bond yields staying low. Shares have been boosted by strong earnings news, improved valuations, investor awareness of last years’ experience of a post lockdown bounce back, vaccines...
Introduction:- The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions – but there are worries about the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus, high inflation, and high...
Key Points: The news on coronavirus has been bleak again lately – with rising cases globally & the ongoing NSW lockdown. However, there are five reasons for optimism: lockdowns still work against Delta (eg, in SA & Victoria); vaccines are working; once lockdowns end economic activity...
Key Points: While shares are at risk of a near term correction on the back of coronavirus and inflation concerns, the trend is likely to remain up against the backdrop of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an...
Key Points: A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful & short term. Five ways to help manage the noise and stay focused as investors are: put the...
Key Points: 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months...
Key Points: The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could...
Key Points: The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around...
