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Key Points So far shares have been relatively resilient but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus correction likely somewhere along the way. ...
Key Points As widely expected, the RBA cut its cash rate to 4.1% from 4.35% after 13 rate hikes reflecting “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards” the 2-3% target. However, the RBA noted that it is “cautious on prospects for further policy easing”. ...
Key Points Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the...
Key Points US President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs. The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means a volatile ride...
Key Points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and shouldn’t...
Key Points 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%. 2025 is likely to see...
Key Points Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in the...
Key Points The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. 2025 is likely to see positive...
Key Points The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. He also faces constraints from: rising bond...
Key Points A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed. Five ways to help manage the noise and stay focussed are: put worries in context;...
