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Key Points: The Fed has finally joined other central banks in raising interest rates, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. This was well flagged and reflects the tight US labour market and high inflation. The Fed flagged another six...
Key Points: Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an offset in Australia...
Key Points: The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be:...
Edwin Starr’s classic 1969 anti-war song, War, asks: “War: What is it good for?” and responds emphatically “absolutely nothing.” It’s hard to argue with the sentiment. But it turns out Starr was not completely correct. You see, despite the terrifying carnage and destruction, war can often...
Key Points: The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to...
Key Points: Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to bear...
Key Points: Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the early 1980s is...
Key Points: 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US midterm elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & the Australian election. To read the...
Key Points: After a 22% rise in Australian home prices this year, they are expected to slow to 5% growth in 2022 with prices likely to fall 5-10% in 2023. The main drivers behind the slowdown are: worsening affordability; rising supply; rising rates; macro prudential...
Key Points: Likely key longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus pandemic are: bigger government; increased money supply and excess saving; increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; a faster embrace of technology; a greater focus on lifestyle; and a potential post-pandemic boom. The biggest risk is of...