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Key Points: Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure on unemployment is increasing pressure...
Key Points: The US dollar looks to have peaked in part reflecting reduced safe haven demand with more downside likely. The gold price has broken out to a record high reflecting a declining US dollar, investors demand for an inflation hedge and a fall in...
Key Points: The Government expects the federal budget deficit to peak at a record $184.5bn this financial year. That’s around 9.7% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2. Ultimately, we expect it to be around $220bn as the Government unveils more stimulus &...
Key Points: The threat to the recovery from the “second wave” of coronavirus cases necessitates additional fiscal support in Australia, with the Government recognising this. Australia’s federal budget deficit is now expected to peak at around $220bn this financial year, or around 11% of GDP,...
Key Points: 2019-20 saw a rough ride for investors as coronavirus hit resulting in small losses for well diversified investors. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were to: maintain a well-diversified portfolio; timing market moves is hard; beware the crowd; turn down...
Key Points: The run up to the US election on 3rd November has the potential to see increased share market volatility if it looks increasingly likely Biden will win and if Trump ramps up tensions with China (and maybe Europe) in response. However, this is...
Key Points: A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely. However, provided any second wave is relatively mild in terms of pressure on health systems and deaths,...
Key Points: The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions. Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right,...
Key Points: Australia capital city home prices fell -0.5% in May. Significant policy support & the earlier reopening of the economy have made our worst-case scenario for a 20% decline in average Australian house prices unlikely. However, our base case is for home prices to...
Key Points: Key medium to longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus shock are: lower for longer interest rates; a further blow to globalisation; another leg up in the US/China cold war; bigger government and public debt; a long-term risk of higher inflation; consumer & investor caution;...
