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Key Points The RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash...
Key Points The last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax reform. Unfortunately, the political pendulum has moved against...
Key Points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be. The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of 200,000-300,000 dwellings; this partly reflects...
Key Points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as President Trump paused the worst of his...
Key Points The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets. But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the...
Key Points So far, the Israel/Iran war is limited, and various constraints suggest it may stay that way with Iran reportedly wanting to return to talks. It’s still early days though and so the risk of an escalation threatening oil supplies remains significant. Current oil...
Key Points US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments. While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this along with...
Key Points As widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the door wide open...
Key Points Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have rebounded to within 3-4% of their record highs. The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is...
Key Points The return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies. The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and affordability, get the budget under...
