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Key Points: The RBA hiked its cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected in response to inflation running above target. Its commentary was cautious and hawkish with inflation now expected to stay above target for longer even with assumptions for two more rate...
Key Points 2025 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth and profits and global central banks cutting rates. Balanced super funds returned around 9%. Volatility rose though mainly on the back of worries about...
Key Points The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed. 2026 is likely to see volatility around...
Key Points The RBA left its cash rate on hold at 3.6% as widely expected at is December meeting. Its commentary also became more hawkish (ie leaning towards a rate hike) on the back of the further rise in inflation in October. Governor Bullock reiterated...
Key Points Cotality data shows national average home prices rose strongly again in November, but with the pace of growth slowing slightly to 1%mom. Near record low vacancy rates is contributing to a pickup in annual rental growth to 5%yoy. The lagged impact of rate...
Key Points Rich valuations, AI bubble worries and uncertainty about central bank rate cuts are the main negatives for shares at present and could see recent falls extend further. Against this though, global profit growth remains strong and there is no sign of recession suggesting...
Key Points Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but get magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business...
Key Points Rich share market valuations are warning of the risk of a pullback in shares amidst fears of a bubble and it’s possible that enthusiasm for AI has run ahead of itself. But the fundamentals behind this are arguably far stronger than they were...
Key Points Five mega trends still point to risks of a more inflation prone/lower growth environment than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations....