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Key Points: The news on coronavirus has been bleak again lately – with rising cases globally & the ongoing NSW lockdown. However, there are five reasons for optimism: lockdowns still work against Delta (eg, in SA & Victoria); vaccines are working; once lockdowns end economic activity...
Key Points: While shares are at risk of a near term correction on the back of coronavirus and inflation concerns, the trend is likely to remain up against the backdrop of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an...
Key Points: A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful & short term. Five ways to help manage the noise and stay focused as investors are: put the...
Key Points: 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months...
Key Points: The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could...
Key Points: The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around...
Key Points: With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are seven reasons for optimism that the recovery will continue at...
Key Points: Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade. Shares face short-term correction risks but as inflation settles the broad trend...
Key Points: The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22. The windfall to the budget from stronger growth is being spent on extra stimulus. Return to...
Key Points: Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets. But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and...
