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Key Points The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid intensification of trade wars which is looking...
Key Points Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran attacking Israel with more missiles is very concerning...
Key Points Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the main...
Key Points While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise that occasional sharp...
Key Points Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a further correction...
Key Points The risk of recession is high. The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. The RBA should be considering cutting interest rates. Share market...
Key Points The continuing rise of populism globally – as evident in recent European elections and in the US with Trump and the Republican party – is signalling an ongoing shift away from economic rationalist policies in favour of greater government involvement in economies and...
Key Points With Australian shares reaching a new record high we have revised up our slightly our expectations for the ASX 200 this year (from 7900 to 8100) reflecting prospects for lower interest rates globally and eventually in Australia boosting the growth outlook next year. ...
Key Points After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have...
Key Points 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared. More central banks moving to cut rates, including the...
