14 May Staying the course
This chart titled "Staying the course" illustrates the effects of Bull and Bear markets on investments for the past forty years. To view the chart click here....
13 May The coming surge in Australia’s budget deficit and public debt due to coronavirus – can we afford it?
Key Points: Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end of WW2. This will see net public debt nearly double as a percentage of GDP over the...
06 May The Lucky Country – three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries
Key Points: Australia has performed better than many countries in controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic policy response & its major trading partner is 2-3 mths ahead of the rest of the world into economic recovery. If, as a we expect, this results in...
28 Apr Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments
Key Points: As we’ve seen recently growth assets like shares have periods of bad short-term performance versus bonds & cash. But they provide superior long-term returns which is essential to grow retirement savings. It makes sense for superannuation to have a high exposure to them. ...
22 Apr Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?
Key Points: After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news. However, positive news on the coronavirus outbreak is starting to get the upper hand – with evidence of curve flattening, an easing in lockdowns and massive policy...
16 Apr Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue
Key Points: Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue. This has increasingly involved quantitative easing which entails the printing of money. Higher inflation is an obvious risk...
08 Apr What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?
Key Points: While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process, it’s still too early to say with confidence we have seen the low for this bear market. Key signposts to watch for are: signs that the virus...
02 Apr The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective
Key Points: Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate. This will be financed by borrowing and is affordable given Australia’s relatively low public debt and low borrowing rates. Central bank support to keep financial markets functioning properly is...
26 Mar Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other?
Key Points: Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts. There are big differences between the current disruption to economic activity –...
19 Mar The threat to Australian house prices from coronavirus
Key Points: The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back. But...
